Egypt

The Egyptian military just came out and said that they are going to maintain their position in the new government basically irregardless of what happens in the elections.  They have also said that they won't allow international inspectors to monitor them.  I know that everyone at the ICT is jumping for joy at this prospect because it lessens the chance of a fundamentalist government taking control.  I'm of two minds about it.  On one hand, I agree that it is certainly the best thing for the US, Israel, and regional stability.  However, the ingrained democratic ideals of being an American chaffs at this thought.  It is my hope that some sort of a middle road will come about, where the military allows a civilian government to grow slowly.  Democracy is a dangerous thing in developing countries and the transition from authoritarian to democratic is the most dangerous time for it.  If it can be done well (slowly) while maintaining GDP and job growth, it raises the possibility of this turning into a very solid government.  Turkey did much the same thing under Ataturk and then in the 80's (I think it was the 80's) when the military over threw the government in a bloodless coup because they refused to support a non-secular regime.  Their power has been gradually limited over the past few decades, but I still think they are the overwhelming force behind the throne.  I know that Dr. Ganor at the ICT will disagree with me, but I don't think that Turkey will allow a fundamentalist government any more than we would.  There is too much to lose financially.  Turkey is one of the rising stars within the international markets.  If they join the EU (and after this last year with the meltdown, I'm not sure they even want to) then they would have even more incentive to stay secular because they will have to adhere to European protocols for civil rights and freedoms.  Egypt could be the same way.  It could follow much the same route as Indonesia and Turkey.  The only problem is that they don't have the infrastructure and resources that those two countries have, and that is going to be the limiting factor.  No matter what government takes hold, there is still going to be high unemployment and a large, educated youth cohort with nothing to do.  With the proper amount of aid, a new age Marshall plan to build up the country, I think that those jobs could be created and disaster averted.  Egypt would be my first target for this plan.  Tunisia as well, and then maybe Syria, depending on what happens in the next few months/years.  I refuse to be pessimistic about it, however.  I'm hoping for someone in the military to realize that they can't avoid change forever and that if they don't allow some concessions to the protesters, they will either have to brutally repress them (Syria style) or they will have another Arab Spring in 10 years that may be more violent and damaging than the first.  I've never been good about predicting the future, but I don't think I can be wrong every time.  Hopefully this is the one of those times.