Sunday, July 17, 2011

Border fence mark II

We took a group excursion to the border fence today with the IDC Executive Masters program.  Very similar to what we did on the first day and while in Hevron, but this time we visited it with a more liberal minded, career army officer.  That certainly made for an interesting experience.  He was very pro-wall and was very impressed with how much good it had done.  What surprised me the most was the way that he was very candid about the downsides on the Palestinian population.  He basically said that he and other career officers were quiet about their rank when they visited the Hague because there are people out there who want to try them as war criminals.  A lot of that had to do with the wall and the checkpoints within the West Bank.  He basically said that a lot of people called it a violation of human rights and he kind of agrees with them.  It must a be a huge hassle, but his job is to make sure that Israeli citizens aren't killed and the wall and occupation are the best ways to do that.  I am of the opinion that there are two sides to that argument.  The reduction in suicide bombings also happened when Abbas took power from Arafat.  He has a much more peaceful outlook on the whole process and, while corrupt, is doing more for the people of the West Bank than Arafat ever did.  He was also fully in support of a two state solution and brought up something that I never would have expected a military man to suggest:  that Israel surrender some of the Arab majority cities that they control to the new state.  Basically, it was a suggestion that would severely reduce the number of Arabs in the country and help keep the Jewish majority strong.  I certainly see his logic, though I don't know that many of them would want to give up on their health care, pension funds, and risk their economic well being to a Palestinian controlled state.  However, it would introduce a large number of prosperous, educated Arabs into the new state which could potentially have some good effects on the rest of the population of the new Palestine.  At least they would be Israeli educated and have the potential to be sympathetic to the peace process, if nothing else than because their economies would be so intertwined with Israels.  However, I'm not sure I see that happening as a viable solution.  Any territory swap that was arranged would lose some of the Israeli population along with it and that seems to be unacceptable to most of the people.  The security issue is another factor, though I think it could certainly be mediated. However, Israel holds all the cards.  If they give up a substantial portion of their Arab population, it will give them that much more leverage in the future because it would delay the inevitable loss of their Jewish majority that much longer.  Giving some concessions to the Arab populations might also mollify them in future negotiations.  And if things go to shit, Israel still has the most powerful army in the Middle East and the backing of the most powerful country in the world.

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